Smaller surf to persist in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
We have enough going on in the ocean above us to keep us from going completely flat, but don’t expect to much any time soon. This late in the season, even when a low pulls off the states into our swell window it generally doesn’t deepen enough to make anything huge. Any anomalous strong storms will most likely continue to be European swell events. That’s the new norm in North Atlantic weather patterns lately. The long period kick back swell from those storms can be iffy (much like the forecast long period swell that never showed up last week). Live buoy data will be important over the next few weeks. As stated before, the weather setup we currently have should be able to send some surf our way, but it will be fickle. NE background swell will come and go with the tides and NW wind swell will come and go as well. I’m expecting a week to ten days of waist high waves with a notch up or down at random moments. Some days might actually go completely flat. I’m working on improving the site so that updates can be done more frequently.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.