Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – May 13, 2018

Small to flat surf in Rincon for a long time to come.

If you have found something else you like doing in Rincon while there is no waves, you’ll probably get pretty good at it. We stay small to flat for a long time. At this point, the only surf we’ll get is from Tropical Systems, and I am NOT looking forward to any future Tropical Systems. If you need to surf, the current flow of weather has been keeping the Southeast Corner of Puerto Rico surf-able. Jobos is also going to be rideable this coming week and from time to time when the wind swell picks up. The blips on the graph of the headline image are going to be the times where the wind chop should pick up. It will be small, windy, and complete garbage. If you are desperate, it won’t matter and you’ll go out there anyways.

My thoughts on the coming hurricane season for 2018.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope I have no idea what I’m talking about and that I’m just completely wrong. I see a very active hurricane season this season. We’re still recovering from last year’s season and this next season looks to get an early start. The ITCZ is VERY active. Open waves never stopped shooting off Africa. Random mid-level lows and surface troughs have been persisting around the Caribbean and Atlantic. The Caribbean and Adjacent Atlantic waters are already hot enough to support Tropical Cyclone formation. The ONE element hindering tropical development is upper level wind flow. That is the only non-conducive element in the current weather situation pertaining to Tropical Storm and Hurricane formation near us. Fortunately, favorable upper level winds are crucial in the early stages of a developing system. As long as they remain unfavorable, is very unlikely a dangerous system can form. However, it’s only a matter of time before windows of opportunity within the upper level wind flow will start to appear. The steer patterns for Atlantic and Caribbean weather seem very similar to last year as well. Be prepared.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.