Surfing summer swell in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
You mean to tell me we have a tropical storm form in May, and a coldfront swell in June? Yup. Rincon should see a decent waist to chest high NE swell fill in Sunday night and last through Tuesday morning. A bit of fluctuation will persist through the whole swell event so if you happen to time it correctly and the surf is really good by coincidence when you’re at the beach, surf it as long as you can. I’m hoping the weather intensifies a bit more and makes for a more solid swell event with more consistent conditions. However, this is June and we should be happy to have ANY sort of movement in the ocean here in Rincon. The tropics remain active and the ocean is still hot so be on the look-out for possible tropical swell in the long-term forecast. Also, take advantage of stocked grocery stores BEFORE any future tropical systems form and have your hurricane survival supplies ready ahead of time. Think about what you would have done differently last hurricane season and be ready to improve on your hurricane preparedness this 2018 hurricane season.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.