Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – April 13, 2018

Smaller Surf in the forecast for Surfing Puerto Rico.

This late in the season it’s no surprise to see a decline in lower latitude winter storms. Unfortunately it would appear that they have disappeared all together and the weather has resumed it’s “up and over” pattern for low pressure with the Bermuda High setting up strong and early this year. This disturbs me – the water is already 81.5F down here and 82 is the minimum to support tropical cyclone formation. More about that in a separate post though. For now we will focus on the two weather systems that should generate some decent smaller surf. The first pulse should arrive from a combination of high pressure wind swell and low pressure NW wind swell. In both instances you notice that it’s all wind swell. Sorry but 10 seconds is the most we’re getting out of this first pulse. The good news is that the NW angle hits Rincon very well and 2ft at 10s from the NW makes for some fun chest high surf at several spots. I’m anticipating this weekend to stay in the waist to chest high range in Rincon. Round two should start to fill in early next week. This second pulse will also be a combo swell with NW wind swell followed by long period NE swell if the storm pulls out as currently forecast. We should see the really long period swell hit most of Puerto Rico on Tuesday through Thursday if all goes according to plan. If we really do see some 2.5ft at 18 seconds swell, several spots should be around head high and bigger on sets here in Rincon.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.