Possible Tropical Storm in the making – surf?
Ladies and gentlemen meet your latest possible Tropical Storm. The weather system is gaining organization as we speak and could possibly be a storm later this evening or tomorrow morning. What will this mean for surf? It will all depend on what track it takes and how strong it can get. I’m really hoping for a more northward track. If the swoop happens just right we could have a storm sitting in the middle of the Atlantic between here and Bermuda dumping swell everywhere. Will that happen? Only time will tell. That scenario is definitely what I “want” to happen. However if we see a more southward track we will most likely only get bad weather and crappy little waves. We have a decent amount of upper level wind shear over PR so that should mitigate some of the risk involved with this weather event. However, as we saw with the last Tropical Storm you should never underestimate Tropical Systems. Stay safe everyone and don’t take unnecessary risks. I have been watching satellite loops constantly so I will update when we have some new news on the storm.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.