Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 29, 2020

PR getting windy, but no surf for Rincon yet.

Potential Tropical Depression Nine will go down in history as the most significant tropical storm that was never an actual tropical storm. It’s still technically an open tropical wave with a broad circulation. It is creating more weather than some smaller Category 1 Hurricanes that have existed so it being a “Potential” depression is just a technical designation. This this is still an impressive weather system with some very real dangerous weather. Unfortunately, the new path means that we get all the bad weather and none of the waves. I am bummed about this. At least we have the sand monster from Africa to thank for throwing heaps of dry/sandy air all over this thing and keeping it from becoming another Maria. Honestly, without the sands all around it, we would have been in a very bad spot. At any given moment the weather system could finally develop a closed center and be a named storm officially so this isn’t over yet – not by a long shot. A stronger storm would be pulled on a more northward track. Either way, get ready for a couple of days of nasty weather and maybe some waist to chest high surf for the weekend.

BE SAFE!

We’re already in the middle of a medical crisis so please be extra careful. A simple rainstorm knocked a few trees down in some places. I can only imagine what a major storm would do right now. Please be prepared and don’t take unnecessary risks.

The south side of the island.

Yes, south spots should be firing while the winds are still north but currents could be a bit intense. There isn’t much on the south side of the storm so dead winds might persist after the passing of the storm allowing for some clean up days with groundswell as well. The south has been working exceptionally well lately due to the now common occurrence of passing tropical waves just about every 2-3 days.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.