Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 23, 2020

Possible Hurricane on the way.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is close to becoming a hurricane by later today. I think it will stay too far south of us to cause any major problems, but don’t let your guard down. I’ve been warning about an active season for a while now. And sure enough, as soon as the wind shear lightened up we had a storm. There’s a dust cloud that Gonzalo is currently outrunning. If it catches up to him he’ll be choked out. There is also currently considerable wind shear under Puerto Rico. Those are the two factors that could cripple Gonzalo. However if the dust cloud doesn’t catch up to him and if the wind shear lightens up in the Caribbean south of PR, then rapid intensification is on the table. This would change the forecast track as a strong storm tends to go a bit more Northward than a weaker storm. It would most likely still miss PR and be more of a Problem Jamaica, Cuba, or the DR/Hispanola. Hurricane Season 2020 lights up… now.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.