Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 14, 2020

Summertime flatness and tropics showing early warning signs.

Summer pattern in full effect. Rincon to stay mostly flat with a little background swell for the next 3 to 5 days. It should be decent enough for small children and surf lessons at the most exposed breaks here in Rincon on the low to incoming tide. The winds have had a tendency to go onshore no matter what every day so mornings will probably be your best bet. If you’re really dying to surf, the southeast corner of the island should be having one of the most consistent summers for surf. See all those tropical waves on the way? They’re not expected to develop into anything. They don’t need to. Each one that passes should at least kick up some waist to chest high surf. Be careful out there though. People have been cooped up, everyone needs to surf, it’s super hot – spots that are already known for their crowds might be a bit extra intense.

Tropical Activity

The tropics are active. Though formation has been impeded greatly by drier air and heavy Saharan Sands, countless tropical waves have been pulling off Africa. I’ve been saying this over and over again. There is a very real possibility that we get hit by a storm this year. The steering currents are pushing every open wave right at us. The ocean is hot and only getting hotter. There is a steady flow of open waves off Africa. The wind shear is starting to relax already in many formation hot spots. If that dry desert air relents, we will see some storms form. It would be a good idea to be ready now for the storms to come.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.