Plenty to speculate on, not much to surf.
We look like we’re in a flatspell for a bit. Granted, many days will still feature a small child and toddler wave but I don’t think that’s what you want unless you are a small child or toddler. Tropical swell? Sure it could happen at any given time in theory. We have plenty to watch but I just don’t see it panning out right now. I will say that this would be a great time to make sure you’re ready for a hurricane NOW. Pretend that a hurricane is coming this weekend. Get ready. The amount of tropical waves pushing off Africa is insane! The sands and wind shear look to be keeping formation at bay, but that might not last all hurricane season. The second the wind shear drops off and the sand gives a clear patch we’ll see a storm.
What about Tropical Storm Fay?
She just doesn’t have the power. Her path is also inopportune for swell development. The early activity in the region shes currently it might be a forshadow of possible future swells though. An easterly push off the states in that area from a stronger weather system would mean rideable waves.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.