Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Aug 16, 2020

Tropical Weather Heating Up – Surf Possible!

Josephine will be right in our swell window, but she’s not very strong. She’s forecast to get pretty weak or die north of PR due to the heavy shear. However, her positioning should still give us something. The most exposed breaks on the island should see some decent head high surf at certain times of day over the next 3 or 4 days. Here in Rincon, we can hope for some waist to chest high days on occasion with the low to incoming tides. If Josephine moves a bit more west than forecast we could see several days with dead or south winds. This will mean intense heat. Hopefully, it will also mean glassy conditions at all north facing beaches and glassy conditions at the most exposed breaks on the island. The swell event should be starting soon for the north side of the island, but don’t expect much in Rincon until around Tuesday evening or Wednesday.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.