Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Aug 21, 2020

Tropical Storm Laura About to Hit

What is with this tropical season? We keep getting skunked hard. We get the bad weather but no good surf. Tropical Storm Laura is going to hit tomorrow and give us some nasty weather and crappy waves. A lot of debri washed into the ocean with the last storm and I imagine that this storm will do the same if we see the same flooding. Stay safe everyone. I also don’t the pattern we’re seeing. Obviously, everyone wants powerful hurricanes out in the middle of the ocean with no land impact. Everyone wins in that situation. That is not happening. The steering currents this year are throwing storms right at us. There is a chance of some decent surf headed our way by Wednesday of next week, but it all depends on what happens this weekend. If all the storms get into one big system we could see beaches light up for the first time in a long time. Some models have actually spit out this scenario so it’s not impossible. Let’s see what happens.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.