It’s just one of those summers.
At the last second, Tropical Storm Laura took a completely different path and left us still sitting under a giant summer flatspel. Some north coast spots on the island had some good waves today, but not much here in Rincon. Here’s what will probably play out over the next few days. Some sideways bump might roll in at the most exposed Rincon spots tomorrow. Don’t have any high expectations. This is a very weak and disorganized storm. As the new week starts we will stay pretty small to flat. Whatever happens with the potential super storm in the Gulf of Mexico and the weather system that is supposed to absorb it will determine if we get some decent waves for the later part of next week. We still have something to hope for, but so far this has been one crazy summer to say the least!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.