One flat, hot, crazy summer in Rincon, Puerto Rico.
We have plenty of days with micro surf good for kids and family surf lessons but no real rideable surf in the foreseeable future. From a forecasting standpoint, what annoys me the most is that there is always the possibility of some weather system bringing a little wave to our shores so there is a “possibility” for surf just about every week. However, week after week, we stay flat, hot, and farted on by the Atlantic.
Go exploring if you want to surf.
Just about everywhere else in the world has waves right now so a surf trip to anywhere in the Pacific might be in order. If you can’t flee the island or the country, exploring the south and southeast of the islands will pay off. I’ve been seeing posts of waist high or bigger waves just about every day from the southeast and east coast of PR. I really can’t say too much more than that, but if you know where to look the weather should continue to support fun waves over there.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.