Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Aug 28, 2018

Plenty of weather, but no waves for surfing Rincon.

Though the Atlantic has not been overly quiet this summer, the pattern of flat and minimal background swell will continue. The only notable feature is that there is almost always a constant flow of open tropical waves passing in the Caribbean. This is why the southeastern corner of Puerto Rico has been having a great summer. Other spots in the Caribbean are probably doing pretty good too. If the winds ever calm down, the north side of the island can be fun too if your expectations are low. Either, way we’re stuck with more of what we have been having for a while now with no change forecast for the next 7 days. At least the fishing has been great!

Tropical Forecast for Surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico

I don’t like the steering pattern we currently have. There is a steady flow of southern waves. So far the wind shear has formed an impenetrable shield in front of the Islands down here. If that shield goes away, we could see a rather destructive September unless the steering currents change. Surface lows in the North Atlantic forming into subtropical and tropical systems is preferred! This would mean storms forming far away from us and giving us nothing but swell for our troubles. Southern storms forming is what I don’t like. Fortunately we’ve already seen a pattern of surface lows in the North Atlantic. I would like to see that continue and also be joined by some early cold-fronts. If we can keep our wind-shear shield, September will be a breeze.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.