Dorian changes course and increases chances for surf.
Tropical Storm Dorian seemed to have a finite set of possibilities all of which involved a more southerly and westerly course before turning north. He decided to tell everyone, “Don’t tell me how to live my life!”, proceeded to change his heading north in front of the island, and turn into a hurricane. This new path changes everything. He won’t be in a Sahara Dust environment, the heat and low shear will remain, and I really don’t see how he won’t turn into a major hurricane. The new path also opens up the opportunity to have a longer run of higher quality surf than initially forecast. Expect the first pulse to show up tomorrow morning and build through the day. The surf should remain steady most of Friday but may fade a little closer to the evening. If the storm strengthens rapidly and ahead of schedule we may be looking at a major swell event to last a week. This storm has kept me staring at satellite loops from the very beginning. Official forecasters have had a very hard time with this storm. I’ll continue to update the forecast as needed as Dorian, the rebel storm does his thing.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.