Wake Up! It’s September in Full Effect!
Take a look at the NHC image that is loaded at the bottom of this page and the satellite loop. We’re in for a very active September. September is always the peak of Hurricane Season and this 2019 has turned out to be a doozie! Hurricane Dorian decided to mercilessly and relentlessly pound the Bahamas as officially the strongest hurricane on record to hit the Northern Bahamas. If he can take a break from that and just move out into the ocean we will get waves and no more people will have to suffer his wrath. That is what we all want. As it is now, the next two or three days are supposed to remain small scale for surf here in Rincon. But wow next week is starting to look like a legit swell will move in. We might see some overhead surf from Dorian’s escapades in the North Atlantic. We might see some hard angle WNW swell hit in the weekend before the bigger stuff early next week.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.