Tropical Depression Fifteen – Possible Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
It’s finally happening! We have a storm forming right in our swell window for NW angle swell. The storm is forecast to have no land interaction which is good. The only bad news is that the storm has a short window of opportunity to strengthen before wind shear tears it to bits. My only hope is that we can see some strong extratropical action form once it dissipates so that we continue to see waves generated. As it is right now I’m already seeing some shorter period NW swell on the Bahamas buoy so tomorrow we might wake up to some waist high lines. If not in the morning, at least by the afternoon incoming tide. Depending on the continued formation and track of TD Fifteen we might see some smaller but fun waves linger on through the week. Let’s see what happens. We will be updating very regularly this week. Keep checking back and follow our Instagram if you don’t already. @RinconSurfReport
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.