I want to believe the flat spell will end one day.
I watched the models trend pretty hard on some scenarios that got me excited this morning. However, they are most interesting at around 7 days from now and that is the most inaccurate time out to predict. I want to believe it. I do. Maybe I have to believe it. Maybe this is all I have left. Staring at weather models day in and day out waiting, just waiting for the ocean to come alive once again. A time when I myself can come alive again. Statistically speaking we’re now in the peak of Hurricane Season, the ocean is super hot, and there are endless tropical waves off Africa. Again the steering currents are still not favorable and put most of the waves on a collision course for PR. I hope that changes over the next couple of weeks. Also the major impediment to storm formation comes at a dusty cost. The air we are breathing right now is full of Saharan Dust. Wearing your COVID mask is actually also helping your lungs at the moment as we continue to see more and more dust push off Africa. In the short term I’m not anticipating much swell besides the current knee to waist high background swell. But by next week we could be looking down the barrel of 3 tropical weather systems and hopefully epic surf with no destruction.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.