GFS still painting a pretty picture.
Ok first things first – this a model run 11 days out. It would appear that the weather is holding a carrot on a stick in front of all of us. Statistically, I wouldn’t be surprised to see everything play out in the middle of September. Continued forecast runs are putting two powerful storms in an area that would give us surf for at least a week. So we could be surfing the entire second half of September. That’s the good news. The bad news is the extreme flatness that will precede this event. Some extra background swell might creep into the north side of the island with lighter winds starting Monday, but here in Rincon we’re talking flaaaaaat. The other bad news is that if the Bermuda high doesn’t push more east we’re looking at getting slammed by two powerful weather systems. Get all your work done this coming week. Make sure all your preparations are in place. Best case scenario, you’ll be more available to surf your brains out should we see the ideal scenario play out. Worst case scenario, you’ll be prepared for the next disaster and not caught off guard. The coming week is definitely one to be responsible.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.