Storm forecast started off good, now not so much.
I’ve been watching the weather very carefully and was quick to jump on the opportunity for some major surf events in the making. Unfortunately it’s looking like we’re at least a week out on any new developments that will make Rincon surfable again. The current storms are forecast to turn north a bit too early to generate any swell for Rincon. The east side of the island and the north side of the island should be exposed enough to have some decent surf next week. Rincon will most likely stay flat. By next week we should have another look at the next systems pulling off Africa for possible surf opportunities in Rincon for the end of the month. I was really hoping that Tropical Storm Paulette and Tropical Storm Rene would sit north of Puerto Rico. It would appear now that they will not.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.