Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Sept 10, 2020

Swell forecast to wrap around into Rincon.

Swell forecast to wrap around into Rincon.

Rincon should see some waist to chest high surf fill in over the weekend. Don’t set your expectations too high though. This event will begin with wrap around swell from the ENE which is less than ideal for Rincon. However, after being flat for so long we’ll take any waves we can get. And if the storm can keep it together as it moves back into our swell window, we could see some of the swell change to NE angle too. The north side of the island should be really fun when the winds are light in the mornings. The size will be head high and bigger up there. Sunday offers a possible opportunity for all north facing beaches to glass off with tropical swell still in the water and south winds. Sundays are now open for surfing after the recent executive order given earlier today. Next week we have more weather to watch and a possible major weather system right on our doorstep. Have fun this weekend!

Here’s what I see happening

Friday: Small waist high mushy lines with a lot of people angry the waves aren’t bigger.
Saturday: Waist to chest high and good form and glassy conditions everywhere in Rincon. Probably a decent wait between sets and a bit mushy due to the angle.
Sunday: Another round of waist high surf. Glassy conditions everywhere in Rincon.
Monday: Another day with south winds and waist high surf building to head high by the end of the day.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.