More small surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.
Granted, the last weather system overperformed and we had a couple of bonus days with really good surf beyond what most models were predicting. This weekend into next week is looking very similar but I’m not seeing it get as good as this past week. Again, we won’t be flat and there will be something in the water to surf through the forecast period. Just don’t expect anything too major to show up at the beach. Bear in mind too that there is a possibility that long period ground swell from the NE could form up over the week. The far North Atlantic is currently seeing some very powerful weather. All of it is pointed at Europe as of now, but if some NE fetch sets up we could see a solid run of swell about 5 days out. I’ll try to take a closer look and update in a day or so with the next week play by play. As of now we should have an OK weekend with smaller scale surf.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.