Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Dec 6, 2019

High pressure moves in small surf will continue.

High pressure moves in – small surf.

First, let me say that I don’t see it going completely flat. We have a lot of activity in the Atlantic and background swell will persist on and off throughout the forecast period. However, whenever high pressure takes center stage, we see weaker wind swell with a slightly unfavorable angle for Rincon. Again, from what I see in the weather we should still have some waist to chest high days, but don’t expect the bombing NW swell that we’ve seeing the past couple of weeks. The past couple of weeks have been a prime example of favorable angle and the classic conditions that correlate. That’s why I get so excited over NW swell. NE windswell on the other hand always tends to be a bit frustrating for me. This is because it tends to be weaker and mushy. The weekend and early next week will see the death of the NW swell event and the start of the NE windswell event. Here’s how I see things playing out.

Saturday will most likely drop off to waist high with glassy conditions at exposed breaks.
Sunday could possibly see one last NW background pulse fill in before letting high pressure windswell take over. Waist to chest high surf with decent power and angle and glassy conditions should persist through the day.
Monday will be somewhat of a replay of Sunday only more short lived. Expect the winds to pick up considerably around noon and turn everything to wind chop later in the day.
Tuesday is currently forecast to be the official arrival of NE windswell, but no matter what the automated forecast tools tell you, don’t expect more than waist to chest high with weak and mushy conditions. I might be wrong on this (and I hope I am), but high pressure windswell never has the same power as solid groundswell.
Wednesday will probably be a surf lesson wave in the waist high range.
Thursday models are hinting at some long period NE swell to show up in the chest to head high range. We’ll have a better idea by Tuesday if this is going to materialize. I am inclined to believe it as the North Atlantic has been very active so far.
Friday is currently the official arrival of a small sized, long-period NE swell in the chest to head high range. Again I’ll have to confirm this by mid-week next week.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.