Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 27, 2019

Models trending on large NW swell for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Just about every forecast model has been calling for the massive winter storm currently over the eastern United States to pull out in the Atlantic and bomb out. The predicted winds and pressure drop are looking like a classic cold-front setup with classic swell. This should be a 5 day swell event. If the storm really does swoop out as forecast, we could possibly see some fun NW swell creep in on Saturday before getting the full blast on Sunday. But Sunday and Monday have been consistently pegged as being some solid double overhead days with bigger sets. The NW angle is ideal for Rincon. This is going to be a good run of swell. Here’s how I see it playing out:

Thursday will see a fun surf lesson wave in the waist high range at exposed breaks.
Friday will pretty much be a repeat of Thursday but with lighter winds in the morning.
Saturday will most likely start out small but increase in size every hour on the hour and end up a few feet overhead by sundown. If the winds stay light, all Rincon spots will be firing as the swell comes in. NW angled swell really lights up Rincon.
Sunday will be at least double overhead and strong. The NW angle and longer period will result in open barrels at many spots. The conditions will be big and heavy.
Monday will see the swell angle change so anticipate a slight change in the the power. However, big surf will persist this entire day.
Tuesday the surf will fade a little but still remain head high with bigger sets.
Wednesday another NW swell is supposed to fill in keeping the surf head high with bigger sets.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.