Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 22, 2019

Sloppy choppy surf for Rincon then good again.

The next couple of days will feature heavy winds and choppy conditions. However, after the initial wind chop we should see some fun clean-up days with light winds. Remember though that shorter period waves tend to not have too much push. Pick a spot that normally has a little more punch or you might get a bit frustrated on the clean-up days. We have had a super long fetch pushing the Western Atlantic at us for a few days now. I find it hard to believe that we won’t see at least a couple of days of chest to head high surf for the clean-up starting Sunday. Here’s how I see things playing out:

Friday will have overhead sloppy choppy waves and heavy winds. The initial push of heavy wind chop and shorter period swell might make it difficult for super tucked away spots to start working.
Saturday should see a slight improvement here in Rincon, but most exposed breaks up north will stay wind blown and garbage. Expect head high surf at the tucked away spots in Rincon with slightly wobbly lines. The afternoon will see more carnage from the wind and turn back into victory at sea conditions.
Sunday the winds are forecast to drop off to nothing here in Rincon. This will be the first cleanup day and the exposed spots should be fun with clean conditions and chest to head high surf at exposed breaks. I anticipate crowds to be very heavy, but I also anticipate several waves in each set and several sets back to back. The amount of waves may supply enough action for the crowds. Also expect a lot of paddling.
Monday should stay around chest to head high with clean conditions and be fun everywhere. No need to crowd a single peak on this day.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.