Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 16, 2019

More NW swell on the way!

More NW swell on the way!

This next front is going to sit and then swoop out right in our perfect swell window for NW swell generation. This means that most of next week will go off! The wind is forecast to pretty much shut down next week as well which should leave just about every spot in Rincon breaking perfectly for the greater part of the day. Granted, when there is no dominant wind, we tend to see a light onshore breeze everywhere, I’m still expecting glassy conditions at least until noon. Our current pulse should last straight through to the next swell so no one will be bored (unless you’re a boring person). Here’s out I see the week playing out:

Sunday chest to head high leftovers should persist through the day at the most exposed breaks with glassy conditions everywhere in the morning.
Monday waist to chest high leftovers again featuring glassy conditions the first half of the day at the more exposed breaks.
Tuesday will see the full punch of whatever that current storm decides to do. I anticipate 2-3ft overhead sets and glassy conditions at tucked away breaks and really good form.
Wednesday looks really fun with head high glassy leftovers with no wind.
Thursday waist to chest high leftovers with no wind and fading conditions though the day.
Friday is a bit of an unknown but most likely to see some weak NE background swell perfect for surf lessons. However, if any of these storms also amplify out in the North Atlantic, we could very well start to see some NE long period kick back for the weekend.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.