Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Nov 10, 2019

Cold front swell and fun surf in Rincon, PR.

Cold front swell and fun surf in Rincon, PR.

This next front isn’t the biggest storm, but the swoop out into the Atlantic and decent NE fetch on the back side of it will give us waves for the work week. Don’t expect anything huge, but we should have some persistent swell and fun conditions over the next few days. The more powerful front is forecast to avoid our swell window all together and make europe continue to fire. Let’s hope that isn’t the theme of this season. We’ve had a fair mix of early fronts, late tropical systems, and hybrid storms so I’m inclined to think variety will be the theme of this season with a few decent runs of classic cold-front swell. Here’s how I see the next 5 days playing out:

Monday will be the biggest with some 2-3ft overhead sets by sundown. I wouldn’t be surprised by a late arrival as the NW swell is on the North Atlantic buoy but completely absent from all the other buoys. This often happens when the NW is generated too far east off the US. We might end up with more of a N to NNE angle in what actually shows up.
Tuesday will most likely be similar to Monday mid-day but the swell will have a little less power and a little longer wait in between sets. We’re still talking head high at the more exposed breaks though and the winds should be fairly light for the first half of the day. Lighter winds means more breaks to surf without a crowd.
Wednesday NE leftovers in the chest high range with light winds will stick around almost the entire day.
Thursday old swell completely dies out while a background pulse from another weather system shows up. At this point we’ll have a better idea of any possible long period swell that might be generated from the Far North Atlantic or at least another weak front with a smaller scale NW pulse.
Friday could see a bump up in the surf with some overhead sets at exposed breaks.

As always check back through the week as I will update if anything changes. As stated in the breakdown, a possible long period swell event may be on the horizon beyond 10 days from a possible large storm in the far North Atlantic.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.