More NW swell on the way for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico!
I like what I’m seeing right here. We’re forecast to see a dip in the jetstream off the eastern US and a very powerful storm is looking to setup a nice fetch across most of the Atlantic Ocean. This means I’m expecting a solid couple of overhead days starting Saturday and a major swell event with more overhead surf is very likely to show up by mid next week. Get ready to surf pretty much every day into 2020. Though the models aren’t currently trending on it yet, I can definitely see this forecast jumping up a notch or two for next week’s swell. I have a really good feeling about the weather setup. Though it’s too soon to tell I see way more than just a few days of waves out of this pattern. I’ll keep close watch on the satellite loops and update the forecast as things materialize.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.