Rincon Surf Report – Dec 29, 2019

Winter weather with winter surf for Rincon, Puerto RIco.

Winter Weather and Winter Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

This is not what a weather map looks like when we’re about to go flat. That giant storm far north should supply a steady stream of long period NE swell for most of the coming week. The giant storm currently over the states should provide a steady supply of swell for next week. If the timing works out, we could see some NW swell show up over the weekend but I wouldn’t get too stoked on that scenario yet. If the jetstream pulls that storm too far north we’ll have to wait for it to generate another NE swell and we’ll see no NW push initially. I’m just looking at the positive opportunity since this season has brought several beats on expectations so far. Very consistent surf is fun for everyone. Here’s how I see the week playing out:
Monday should see a strong push of NE long period swell with exposed spots remaining well overhead and tucked away spots with fun head high lines with decent power. Long period swells tend to have a decent amount of wait in between sets which could cause some frustration for the crowded spots.
Tuesday will be very similar to Monday with a slight drop in size and tucked away spots slightly smaller the more tucked away you get. Should still have some chest to head high sets in the water.
Wednesday will still have some head high sets at exposed breaks, but expect fading conditions throughout the day.
Thursday will be surf lessons delight with waist to chest high surf at exposed breaks.
Friday will be pretty much a repeat of Thursday but perhaps a little more consistent.
Saturday might see a new pulse of chest to head high surf with glassy conditions at several Rincon spots.
Sunday is currently forecast to be leftovers from whatever showed up Saturday. Don’t expect more than waist high according to the current forecast, but it wouldn’t take much to shift the forecast up so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this change.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.