High Winds and Big Surf!
The current storm in the Atlantic will pump swell at us for several days. It will also keep conditions windy. Fortunately, Rincon should be protected and keep the wind-swell groomed. The wind is forecast to be blow very hard out of the East which should keep all tucked away spots clean. The biggest pulse is forecast to show up Saturday. I am inclined to believe it. However, I’m not seeing anything hit the North Atlantic buoy yet so I would say we fade out to background swell on Thursday and Friday. If we see the North Atlantic buoy light up by tomorrow night, a Saturday arrival will be confirmed. Give the storm some time to generate some swell. The wind has been exceptionally difficult to forecast with accuracy for several models, but pretty much all of them are trending on hard East winds starting tomorrow afternoon. The west coast of PR has been consistently defying forecasts this season. I hope the hard offshores win this time. Many days start off perfect but end up being onshore everywhere. I hope this next round of swell stays glassy for all the west facing coast of Rincon. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be the biggest if the current model runs are accurate. Expect 2-4ft overhead surf and hard offshore winds for all tucked away Rincon spots.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.