Biggest Swell of the Year (so far) on its Way!
This one’s gonna be a big one! Don’t let the small surf of Today and Tomorrow fool you. Sunday will wake up to double overhead and bigger. This is a huge, powerful storm that will make huge, powerful waves. The surf will be beyond most people’s skill level. Please stay safe people. I really don’t want anyone to die this swell event. Monday will still be large and Tuesday will be considerably smaller but still good and what most people would consider perfect waves. Wednesday may fade to flat, but by Thursday or Friday another NW pulse is supposed to show up which could light up a lot of tucked away nooks and crannies. The original model runs were giving the later NW a longer wave period than the current runs, but I hope the forecast goes back to longer period NW swell. As for this weekend’s swell, the period is supposed to be 15 or 16 seconds so expect a lot of power and hopefully way more barrels in the line-up than usual.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.