Another Big NW Swell – More Surf in Rincon!
Here we go again! Expect conditions to be a a few feet overhead and clean in the morning tomorrow with sets building to double overhead by the end of the day. Saturday should be pretty much the same as tomorrow but with a slightly more northerly angle. This won’t mean much for Tres and it will most likely see big sets all day Saturday. Sunday the conditions start to fade, but if all goes according to plan we could see fun size waves persist into the new week. The current pattern would suggest another front moving into position to setup the next swell by mid-week next week. Winds are forecast to blow south on Tuesday so this is very much a possibility. The lower lattitude of this storm along with the drop in pressure right in our swell window tells me this swell should have a decent amount of west in it which should serve to get a lot of nook and cranny spots working even if the actual swell height doesn’t end up being huge. This is a very different storm and swell setup than the last swell, but the end result is similar – big perfect waves.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.