Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Jan 30, 2020

Weaker weather, smaller waves, still surf.

Weaker weather, smaller waves, still surf.

I get it, after one of the biggest swells we’ve seen in years followed up by another decent sized NW swell it’s hard to get get excited about smaller waves, but remember – small doesn’t always mean flat. The surf doesn’t have to be double overhead to have fun. Even though this weekend won’t pack the same punch as the previous two swells, I see plenty of opportunities for some fun sessions before the next swell with overhead surf gets here on Tuesday. Here’s how I see things playing out:

Thursday will most likely start of very small with dead winds and be perfect for beginner surf lessons or any calm water activity. Some NW swell should creep in around lunch time and last the rest of the day.
Friday the leftovers from whatever shows up from this NW pulse that is on the outside buoys linger on with most likely some waist to chest high surf at the most exposed spots in Rincon. The wind might pick up in the afternoon so early morning is the best call for a glassy session.
Saturday has the possibility of keeping the waist to chest high surf alive with some N angled background swell filling in. I would say this day will be a bit more tide sensitive that most days.
Sunday should also keep the waist to chest high surf alive but with a little less power as the angle will not be a direct hit.
Monday is currently not forecast to go flat, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it does. I’ll split the difference with the models and say waist high surf lesson wave.
Tuesday should see the arrival of the next major pulse in the 2ft overhead range at all Rincon breaks. The surf may start off a little on the small side in the early morning but I’m anticipating at least 2ft overhead by the mid-day.

Today

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Thu

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Fri

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sat

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Sun

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

Wed

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

Forecast Swell Period:

Forecast Winds:

National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.