Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 4, 2020

High pressure, small surf

High pressure is forecast to take center stage for a little bit. Whenever this happens we get some smaller scale wind swell until the next major weather system pushes through. My guess is that by the middle of this month we will start to see some larger swells develop. Whenever we end up with a break for a week or so the Atlantic this time of year something big gets going. I’m inclined to believe that March is going to rage as well out of anticipation for some more hybrid storms. The ocean water temps have maintained a pretty warm temperature around the island throughout December and January. Heat is energy. That energy can feed into some storms eventually. You might be wondering, “why is he hyping up so far out?” Well, we all need something to look forward to when it’s about to go small to flat for a little bit. Wind chop should persist in the head high range on the North side of the island the next week and a half though so there should be plenty of opportunities to maintain sanity should we come up on a full on flatspell. In the short term, I’m seeing some decent leftovers early tomorrow morning that will fade out rather quickly. After that another chest high pulse could show up on Sunday. Besides that it’s looking kinda grim. I hope I’m wrong and huge winter storm jumps out in the Atlantic and changes everything.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.