Long Period Swell has everyone doing the happy dance!
It was bound to happen. You can’t have that many end of days winter storms bomb out that hard in the North Atlantic without some long period swell being shot everywhere. The CariCOOS buoy data will be key in knowing how much of it is out there. Today we have 2.3ft at 18.2 seconds and that’s making for some overhead sets with glassy conditions and absolutely perfect surf at all the major reef breaks. I expect this long period swell to linger on as the week goes on and the weekend should see the formation of a new swell. We should have perfect waves for a while. Expect Sunday to be the arrival of the next overhead day with some possible double overhead surf. I’ll keep monitoring the weather and update as needed.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.