Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 16, 2018

Heavy winds and more wind swell to surf in Rincon, Puerto Rico.

What’s that? Oooooooh you wanted waves, NOT wind. Sorry. Just got wind. I’ve put writing this forecast off for so long because i was waiting for a change in the weather. The change hasn’t happened. High pressure continues to dominate and amplify over the Northern Atlantic. None of the winter storms or cold fronts dip out into our swell window. It’s been a long stretch of this pattern so hopefully it will change soon. The wind however is not currently forecast to relent, not even for a day. The light at the end of the tunnel comes about a week from now when hopefully some longer period NE swell might show up from way up North in the Atlantic. It will have to be quite the powerful swell to push through the still 20-30mph ENE winds that just won’t stop. In the meantime, the short period wind swell will be all we have for the next 7-10 days. At least there has been some small windows at some of the more exposed breaks for a fun session to be had. If you can catch a tiny break in the wind with the tide low enough, the small waves can be fun. If you’re a beginner or wanting to learn how to surf, Rincon will be your dream come true for the next week and a half. The tucked away spots continue to have a small peeler perfect for beginners and lessons.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.