Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 21, 2021

Decent wind swell on the way for surfing Puerto Rico.

The strong high pressure visible on the map above and northerly wind fetch means we should see a solid dose of wind swell and heavy winds showing up by Tuesday. Expect some fun 2ft overhead surf with bigger sets and astronomical crowds. I’m surprised that the AirBnb website hasn’t been crashed yet on account of every single AirBnB on the island being booked simultaneously. The crowds have been absurd. With heavy winds of this coming swell there won’t be too many options for escaping the crowds either. Nonetheless, the waves should stick around for a couple of days before fading out to the long period background swell of whatever the massive storm does in the far North Atlantic. It’s just another one of those seasons were the other side of the Atlantic is where all the surf is hitting.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.