We continue surfing small waves in Rincon, PR.
Today we say goodbye to February 2021, a month of historic crowds and minimal waves. We had a few fun runs of swell but overall not the best February. For now we look to stay on the smaller scale wind swell for about another week. The Bermuda high is already a very strong and pronounced feature of the current weather cycles. So far most of the fronts have to move up and over before exploding in the North Atlantic to deliver massive swell at Europe and Africa. It’s just not a season for our side of the Atlantic. This has happened off and on over the years but seems to be more frequent as of late. I blame higher heat. I’m not a meteorologist, but as an observer of the weather for many years the earth seems as though it is trying to find entropy slightly differently than in the past. Due to higher heat it seems more common now for warmth to be pulled northward as opposed to cold air being pushed down. I might be wrong, but I’ve watched satellite loops over and over again for a good portion of my life. Yes we have the NAO, El Niño and La Niña, and other established phenomena to consider, but at the end of the day it’s all just heat differentials that drive everything. I guess the earth likes to keep things interesting.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.