Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Feb 28, 2018

I want to believe…

But I don’t. This looks more like another NE long period swell setup, not a NW swell setup. However, if the crazy dip in the jetstream from that west coast storm can sweep across the US and dip out low in the Atlantic, we’ll see a massive swell actualize. All of the models still consistently peg a big storm in the North Atlantic right in our swell window over the weekend so hopefully I’m wrong and we get another swell of the decade setup. If I’m right about the way I see it, we’ll see another long period NE swell fill-in by middle of next week. If I’m wrong, we’ll see a NNW long period swell fill in by early next week followed by a long period NE swell from the back end of the storm to last the rest of the week. All in all, looks like we win either way.

Short Term – Perfect Surf in Rincon.

The buoys have been pinging with long period swell all across the Atlantic. From this evening through the weekend we should see perfect overhead waves with double overhead sets on the right tide when the swell maxes out on Friday. Bear in mind that the weather system that created this swell is very far away. I’m anticipating lulls. If everyone is crowding one break, it could get hectic. The wind is forecast to finally calm down and will hopefully offer clean morning sessions for the north facing beaches here in Rincon. With plenty of swell in the ocean and calm winds, several spots should be working all over Puerto Rico. No need to crowd one spot.

Safety Warning!

There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.