Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – July 2, 2018

Small background swell for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Lots of background windswell in the surf forecast for Rincon, Puerto Rico. There’s plenty of action in the ocean to the keep a little surf lesson bump showing up at random over the coming week, but the tide will have to be low and it will have to be the right spot. The current setup over the Atlantic and Caribbean shows continued hard easterly flow towards the equator and nonstop tropical waves flowing off Africa. This means that the southeast corner of Puerto Rico will continue to see the best surf over the next couple of weeks. Isabela might see some bigger days as well with cleaner conditions at the crack of dawn. It’s summer time. Believe it or not, this isn’t that bad of a forecast considering it’s July.

Tropical Update: Saharan Sands have the tropics on lock!

The dry Saharan Dust will prohibit any tropical formation despite the barrage of tropical waves currently present in the Atlantic and Caribbean. The Sahara must be a horribly miserable place to live if it gets so hot and dry that it’s sand blows all the way accross the ocean and saturates an entire chunk of the earth’s atmosphere. The full moon the other night was sooooo hazy and there wasn’t a cloud in the sky. If your allergies have been acting up and you don’t know why, it’s probably because we’re all breathing in sand over here. However, I like the fact that it is a strong deterrent to tropical storm and hurricane development.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.