Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – June 28, 2018

Summer swell on the way for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

Summer swell on the way for surfing Rincon, Puerto Rico.

A weak front will pull of the states with enough force to push some small waves at Rincon, Puerto Rico. The irony is that the entire island should have waves this weekend. The south should continue to see tropical swell from the non-stop chain of tropical waves pumping off Africa and crossing the ITCZ. Here in Rincon expect to see some waist to chest high sets at the most exposed breaks during the peak of the swell on Saturday. I wouldn’t get too jumpy about Friday or Saturday. Don’t get me wrong, a surprise early arrival and extended stay would be awesome. I just don’t see it happening. Conditions will most likely fade out to flat by Sunday evening. Other parts of the island will continue to see small to medium tropical swell throughout the week.

The earth is acting a bit strange.

The earth is acting a bit strange.
This wouldn’t be a thorough forecast without mentioning the weird weather pattern we’re seeing right now. We have a cold-front pulling off the states and non-stop tropical waves passing in the Caribbean. It’s as if neither winter nor summer want to take a break. The Pacific is hurricane fest and extremely hot. Definitely summer over there. But here, the Atlantic doesn’t know what it wants out of life. It’s like to be hot, it likes to be cold, it doesn’t like to push swell at Puerto Rico, but it will when it feels like it… I guess it all doesn’t really matter as long as we get to surf. That being said, being willing to explore the south coast of the island might pay off if you know where to look.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.