Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – June 19, 2015

Surf Science and Math - surfing rincon.

NE Swell of 3ft at 13s hit 41049 for 8hrs starting at 1pm yesterday = Surf Soon?

Rogue background pulses can be hard to figure out sometimes, but what we normally find is that 24hrs after hitting 41049 we see it start to hit 410143. After that it’s normally about 8-12hrs before it hits Rincon. This puts the bulk of the swell here starting at 1am Saturday with 8hrs of swell. This means the early morning on Saturday should have some waist high waves that will fade out as the morning goes on. But things rarely play out quite exactly as predicted. Keep checking the buoys on the home page of this site. When 13 second period swell starts showing up on the Rincon buoy with at least 1.6ft of wave height go surfing. If the swell comes in a little later we could see fun surf for most of Saturday. If it comes in early we will get most of the waves overnight and awaken only to see the surf fade away. Don’t count this afternoon out completely, but don’t get overly excited about the possibility either.

The surf will be considerably bigger up north.

Remember, this is a NE angle swell and will not be a direct a hit for Rincon. The longer period should help it reach the most exposed breaks in Rincon, but don’t expect much wrap-around (it’s already wrapping-around by the time it hits us). The north side of the island will be more exposed to the swell and should be head high when it hits.

Possibility of smaller leftovers for Sunday.

Even though the main event will most likely be Saturday, we can hope for some inconsistent leftovers to hang on through Sunday and possibly even Monday. Those days look to be a bit smaller and inconsistent though. Might be better for kids and beginners.

Today

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Wed

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Thu

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Fri

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sat

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Sun

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Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Mon

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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Tue

NOAA WaveWatch III Wave Model:

Wave Watch III from NOAA wave prediction model for surfing Puerto Rico.

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National Hurricane Forecast Center
Atlantic Ocean Satellite Loop

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.