Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 13, 2018

More Surf for Rincon, Puerto Rico.

This looks like a decent enough cold-front to me! There are some key differences between this winter storm and last week’s super swell, but the current storm system should have plenty of power, fetch, and positioning to to throw a nice NW swell our way. The motion of this storm isn’t going to have the same dip down and push the entire North Atlantic at us. It’s going to move north and climb latitudes which means that the pulse will probably not last as long as the super swell. I still expect 3-4 days of perfect surf from the current weather system. We could see the first pulse of swell as early as tomorrow evening and it should last into Saturday morning. Depending on what the storm does at sea we might see some NE long-period kickback into the weekend and early next week. It’s not currently forecast to do that, but from what I’m seeing in the forecast track of the winter storm it might be a possibility. Tomorrow will probably start off small in the waist high range and build into head high by evening. Thursday could see some sets into the double overhead range with most of the surf averaging a couple feet overhead at most spots. Friday should be fading but still have chest to head conditions with a little bigger set thrown in at random. Saturday will start off chest high as well and slowly fade out as the day goes on. I’ll keep checking on the progress of this storm and update accordingly. But basically, get ready to surf!

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.