Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 2, 2018

Super Swell Confirmed – Get Ready Rincon!

Would you just look at that! I mean, just look at it! It broke the chart! This swell is going to be massive. Saturday looks like the last day for regular humans to surf the normal breaks. After that it will be the super tucked away nooks and crannies for the most of us. For the big wave chargers, the biggest surf we’ve had all year will be readily available. This thing is really happening. It’s amazing to watch it on sat images. It’s what I’ve mind-willed so many times, except this time it’s actually doing it. If the center of the storm drops in latitude, the push will amplify things even more and make this a solid week-long event. The wind is currently forecast to be a bit intense, but if the high pressure fights back a little bit we might be ok here in Rincon. This will be due to the forced easterly angle on the local winds (if that happens).

SAFETY WARNING!

The massive swell event is going to create some very dangerous conditions in the ocean. There is always risk every time we paddle out. Even more so when the conditions are big. A fool ignores the risk, a wise person anticipates and prepares for the risk. How’s your leash doing? How’s the string that attaches your leash to your board? How long can you hold your breathe while getting pounded? Can you swim back to shore safely if the situation arises? Do you know the layout of the reef well enough to avoid getting pounded mercilessly? Everyone please be as safe as you can. If you’re out of your league, don’t paddle out and become a danger to yourself and others.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.