Rincon, Puerto Rico Surf Forecast – Mar 4, 2020

Models trending on a big swell for surfing Puerto Rico.

Classic spring time cold front is supposed to pull off the states at a low enough latitude to pump a major swell at us.The models have been trending on this scenario for a while now and I’m inclined to believe it. Expect double overhead and bigger by next Monday. The storm should be big enough to fill all of next week up with good surf. As for the short term, expect conditions to fade out over the next couple of days and go close to completely flat by the weekend. Conditions should be glassy at all Rincon breaks for the first half of the day through Friday. After that, the winds might still stay light, but there will only be a tiny surf lesson wave out there. You’ll have to head up north for any more size.

Using Automated Forecast Tools:

Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.