Plenty of Surf for Rincon, PR!
Yes, there is plenty of swell in the ocean right now. The North Atlantic was just pounded by a HUGE storm. We’ll have a few days of large surf followed by several days of normal sized good surf. Today’s weather was a bit nasty, but I imagine that will clear up tomorrow and we should still see some double overhead sets with good conditions. Depending on how intense the high pressure wind swell builds above us, we can either see the remnants of the big swell perfectly groomed or knocked down completely and replaced by windswell. All the outside buoys have been solid for 3 days so I expect to see overhead sets through Wednesday. Thursday sees the swell drop down to chest to head high. Friday will most likely see some waist to chest high action here in Rincon with bigger conditions up North. The weekend is a bit more uncertain. Long period kick back swell should make its way to PR at some point over the weekend and most models are calling for Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it show up more on Monday. However, some outside buoy data by Friday evening should confirm a Sunday arrival or not. I’ll update again on Friday. Be safe and have fun!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.