Computer models keep dangling the carrot.
Every day, just about every model run has called for North swell a few days out for pretty much the entire month. Unfortunately, in reality we will stay small to flat for the foreseeable future. The models keep forecasting a swell that just won’t show up. We have a blocking high that just won’t let the late storm systems open up in our swell window. Instead it pushes them up and over our swell generation zone. A few days later they open up in the North Atlantic just enough to push some NE swell at the north side of the island. It looks like that pattern will continue and the North side of the island can continue to have fun waves in the morning for another week or so. Take it while you can and go up north or keep chasing that carrot here in Rincon. For what its worth, keep an eye on the daily forecast charts below for a change for the better.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.