Weak Front, No Jetstream Dip, Weak Swell
We will stay small to flat for the rest of the week. Late in the weekend into early next week a long period NE swell is supposed to fill in. It probably won’t reach around into Rincon very well but the North side of the island should be going off! Light winds and 3ft NE swell at 15 seconds makes for some fun waves up there at the right spot. It’s a good option for early next week if the swell materializes. Expect some crowds though since Rincon might only get waist high during the pulse and I’m sure plenty of people will be driving North for bigger and better waves. Right now it’s the only thing we have to look forward to.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.