After non-stop swell this week, things are going to calm down a bit.
We have some leftovers Today which will fade out Tomorrow. After that some background swell for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week will show up thanks to a front that is barely dipping out in the Atlantic off the Eastern USA. All the fronts in the long term for almost the rest of the month are not dipping down and out in the Atlantic like this past front did. Instead, they’re all forecast to point their wind-flow, movement, and any resulting swell away from us with no considerable dip in the jetstream to push them into our swell window. This means we will only get background pulses. Seeing a forecast like this after such a good swell is kind of a bummer. I hope it flip-flops and we get another raging front!
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.