I know I sound like a broken record player: No fronts in our swell window, More NE background swell.
I want another dip in the jetstream to push another front off Hatteras into our swell window. I really do. It’s just not going to happen soon. We are left with small to flat conditions in the long-run through the end of the month. We will continue to get background NE pulses here and there, but nothing major.
Right now we have a super fun long period NE swell and it will be fun for one day only. Expect dropping size by tomorrow and we’ll fade back to surf lesson, longboard, and little kid waves by mid-week.
Now for the good news! The models are going crazy at the end of the month with big storms pulling off the states into our swell window. The beginning of December will probably rage! I think we’re going to have a great December. I am going out of town in early December so there will absolutely 100% certainty that a big swell will show up while I am gone. You’re welcome.
Using Automated Forecast Tools:
Remember that no matter what a computer model tells you, what you see on the beach might be completely different. That's why i go take pictures of the beach every day. These tools help give an idea of what to expect, but weather prediction is not always exact especially the further out you try to forecast. Surf forecasting takes into account the general correlation between past weather data and resulting surf conditions. Another thing to keep in mind is the difference between actual swell height and the face height of the rideable wave it creates. For example. When the waves are forecast to have a 6ft swell at 13 seconds or higher with a NW angle we normally get waves that most people would call double over-head on sets. Swell angle is also important, especially for shorter period swell (9-11 seconds). For example 3ft at 11 seconds from the NW will make a bigger wave than 4ft at 9 seconds from the NE. Normally longer period swell (13+ seconds) will be more powerful and keep the surf size a little better even if the angle isn't a direct hit to Rincon. Generally any swell less than 9 seconds is super weak here in Rincon unless it has a lot of west in it. Also, most NE swell under 12 seconds is weak and mushy. 2ft at 8 seconds is generally small to flat. ENE swell will almost never make it into Rincon unless it was something like 10ft at 18 seconds from the ENE.